Bangladesh’s ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina may be increasingly becoming a liability for India as New Delhi’s discomfort over her continued presence in the country grows, according to a BBC Bengali commentary.

Hasina fled to India on August 5, 2024, amid student-mass uprising that brought an end to her 15-year rule. She has since remained in India, while Dhaka has repeatedly sought her return.

The BBC commentary, published on its Bengali YouTube channel on Thursday, revisited Hasina’s arrival in India and examined whether New Delhi’s approach towards her has changed over the past two years.

‘This Hindon Airport in Ghaziabad, on the outskirts of Delhi, rarely sees commercial flights, but mostly military aircraft. Exactly two years ago, on an August afternoon, Sheikh Hasina landed here on a Bangladeshi military aircraft. She was welcomed on the tarmac by India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. India had given a warm welcome to a foreign friend in danger that day. But is Delhi’s view of her slowly changing today?’ the report said.

The commentary said Bangladesh was angered by Hasina’s participation in a live online press conference from Delhi on the second anniversary of August 5.

‘Yes, it is true, Bangladesh is very angry with the way Sheikh Hasina joined the live online press conference at Delhi’s Apex on the second anniversary of August 5,’ it said.

While India has officially denied having any involvement in the episode, the BBC commentary said Bangladesh believes New Delhi permitted Hasina to interact in that manner and that her remarks, particularly those directed at Indian media, could not have been made without tacit Indian support.

‘Although Delhi has officially claimed that they have nothing to do with this incident, Bangladesh assumes from the course of events that the Indian government has allowed her to interact in this way and that what she said, mainly aimed at the Indian media, she did not say without India’s tacit support,’ the report said.

Hasina’s legal status a source of tension

According to the commentary, the central source of India’s growing discomfort is Hasina’s legal status in Bangladesh.

‘The main reason is that Sheikh Hasina is currently a death row convict in a Bangladeshi court, whom the government of that country wants back. India is sitting quietly without responding to that request. And it is casting a shadow on every aspect of bilateral relations—be it the Ganges Treaty or trade restrictions. India-Bangladesh diplomatic relations are not able to return to normal. A big reason for that is Sheikh Hasina herself,’ it said.

The report also pointed to what it described as a change in the way Indian authorities have handled Hasina since her arrival.

It said foreign guests who take shelter in India are customarily debriefed by Indian authorities, noting that Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama had also been subject to such a process.

‘In the case of Sheikh Hasina, Ajit Doval himself played this role for several months at first,’ the commentary said.

But, citing information obtained by the BBC, it said the responsibility later shifted from Doval to senior intelligence officials.

‘But the BBC has learned that he later stepped down and the responsibility fell on the shoulders of Intelligence Bureau chief Tapan Deka or, after his retirement, current chief Mahesh Dixit. Many say that this is proof that Sheikh Hasina’s importance in Delhi is no longer what it used to be,’ it said.

Disagreement over Awami League’s political future

The BBC commentary also claimed that Hasina had expected India to help restore the Awami League to Bangladeshi politics following her arrival in Delhi.

‘Informed sources also say that from the first day after landing in Delhi, Sheikh Hasina expected that India would help her rehabilitate the Awami League in Bangladeshi politics,’ it said.

However, citing sources in India’s home and foreign ministries, the report said Hasina had rejected proposals made by New Delhi over the past two years aimed at achieving that objective.

‘But sources in the Indian Home or Foreign Ministry indicate that she did not want to accept any proposal made by Delhi in the last two years to that end. She has even firmly rejected the proposal for a minor or temporary change in the party leadership,’ the commentary said.

It further suggested that Hasina’s refusal to compromise had caused irritation among Indian officials.

‘This stubbornness and stubborn attitude, denial of reality – these have also irritated Indian officials as usual,’ it said.

‘Liability factor’ growing

The report acknowledged India’s long-standing practice of providing shelter to foreign allies and political figures facing danger.

‘It is a long-standing Indian tradition to provide shelter to trusted foreign friends when they are in danger or their lives are in crisis. The same was followed in the case of Sheikh Hasina,’ it said.

However, according to observers cited by the BBC, Hasina’s continued stay in India may now be creating a growing political burden for New Delhi.

‘But observers in Delhi believe that the ‘liability factor’ has become even greater in the case of Sheikh Hasina, as she has been given the status of hospitality by accommodating all the demands of India, such as the Dalai Lama or the family of former Afghan President Najibullah. There are real obstacles in regional geo-politics and Delhi’s discomfort with Sheikh Hasina is growing,’ the commentary said.

The report also noted that Hasina’s exact location in India has not been publicly confirmed.

‘It is not possible to say for sure where exactly Sheikh Hasina has been kept in India. Maybe in the heart of Delhi, in this Lutyens’ Zone, or some other place in the city,’ it said.

The BBC commentary concluded that while Hasina continues to be treated with respect in India, the prospects for her continued stay may be diminishing.

‘Wherever she is, she is in honor. But one thing can be said for sure. The chances have become slim for now.’

It added: ‘If she can really return to Bangladesh in December, or go to a third country like Europe and America, then the Indian government will be holding its breath.’