Shawdesh desk:
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down its growth forecast for Bangladesh, citing uncertainty surrounding the national elections in January, a decline in exports, energy and power crises, and high inflation.
The ADB now estimates that Bangladesh’s GDP growth will be 6.20% at the end of the fiscal year, down from its previous forecast of 6.50%.
The government had set a target of 7.5% growth for the current fiscal year.
The ADB published its December edition of the Asian Development Outlook, expressing concerns about the economic outlook for Bangladesh.
The report did not specify the extent of the reduction in the growth forecast but highlighted the challenges facing the Bangladeshi economy.
An official from the ADB office in Dhaka said that 6.20% growth has been predicted for Bangladesh amid election uncertainty.
The ADB emphasizes that the economic slowdown in countries that import Bangladeshi products has contributed to the moderation of growth in the export and production sectors.
The report has pointed out that, besides Bangladesh, the Maldives is another country in the South Asian region expected to experience economic slowdown.
ADB expressed concerns about the inflationary pressures in Bangladesh for the current fiscal year but did not provide specific details on the expected increase. The report also identified Kazakhstan, Myanmar, and Korea as countries where inflation is likely to rise.
The report has highlighted that Bangladesh, along with Nepal, continues to experience high inflation among South Asian countries.
ADB noted that despite various measures, Bangladesh’s inflation rate remained close to double digits from July to October.
The bank suggests that if the contractionary monetary policy continues, inflation may stay subdued in the coming months. Additionally, ADB emphasizes the need for effective measures to promote market-based monetary policies and improve yields to reduce inflation, even in the face of low international commodity prices.
According to the report, Asia’s average gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to be 4.9% in 2023, with a slight decrease to 4.8% in 2024. The average inflation in Asia is expected to marginally decrease to 3.5% in 2023 but may increase to 3.6% in 2024.
Among major economies, the ADB predicts a GDP growth rate of 6% for India and 4.2% for China in 2024. The forecasts suggest a mixed economic outlook for the region, with varying growth rates and inflation trends across countries.